Brewery Sizing
Brewery Sizing
At Forgeworks, we primarily specialize in building 3.5, 5, 7 & 10 Barrel Brewhouses, the ideal system size range for the Brewpub business model. To support this size range for long term growth , we offer up to 2x & 3x sized Fermenters and Brights, as well as Hot/Cold Liquor Tanks. For the brewpub business model, at the 3.5 through 10bbl scale, we believe that Process Piping (stainless hard pipe plumbing), a rake and plow for the Mash Tun, and Complex Control Panels are not necessary equipment (this equipment is a standard with 15bbl & up). These features come at a price that is very difficult to see an actual return on investment in terms of labor savings, unless you forecast brewing 2-3 (4-7 brews) back to back brews a week, 50 weeks/yr inside of your first 5 years in business. Should that be the case, you may see a return on investment with these added features, but not until you reach that volume of brewing, and if that is what you are forecasting within the first 5-7 years, strongly consider the next size up, or two sizes up. If a 15bbl or larger brewhouse is your target, your business model is typically quite different than a brewpub model, a Rake and Plow becomes essential to manage the grain bed effectively, and Process Piping and more complex controls become practical tools for the barrel volume that is commensurate with these larger systems.
At Forgeworks, our core focus is building brewhouses that utilize soft hose connections and simple controls. With this concept, we take our space in the Craft Brewing Industry, for the Brewpub size brewery. We are known for our equipment to be burley and simple to use, and for our consultation with our customers in terms of maximizing the required start up equipment, against available start-up capital. We share ideas on what equipment can easily be added later, and how you can plan for controlled growth with the system you choose. Our website is filled with information to back up and support our beliefs and we trust you will find this useful as you develop your project plans. On occasion, a few of our customers have asked us to build their brewhouse with a rake and plow, process piping and more complex controls to best fit their requirements, objectives and forecasts, but we feel such equipment at this scale is typically the exception.
It should be noted that as you analyze your comparisons with brewhouse manufacturers/suppliers, you will find that many equip their Brewpub sized systems with all the bells and whistles, process piping, and fancy controls, that you don't need. Typically the price tag on these systems is more than a Forgeworks brewhouse. These systems are almost always a "cookie cutter" system made in China, so you can't substitute options, or pick and choose the features you want and eliminate what you don't want. Thus, being made in China, if you were able to remove features you don't need, you would realize a system and a much lower cost. These systems are packaged with much inferior ancillary equipment, such as pumps, heat exchangers, and other equipment that can be problematic to service. Also, these semi-automated systems come with continual exposure to servicing valves, and controls, much of which may be out of the scope of your brewing staff. Issues with valves and controls cost money and down time. The more complex the controls, the more time it will take to train brewers, the more crucial errors that can (likely will at some point) occur (sending wort or caustics to the wrong tank), and any system malfunctions that come up are typically out of the scope of knowledge to troubleshoot via the brewery staff. Outside sources are commonly required to fix control panel issues, and pneumatic valve malfunctions.
For the Brew Pub business model, a 7bbl or 10bbl Brewhouse seems to be quite the sweet spot. One very crucial consideration when evaluating which size Brewhouse to invest in is; will it allow you the capacity to reach your forecasted annual production goals 5 or more years down the road? Part of this evaluation is inclusive of a very careful analysis of what square footage you would require, square footage that would also allow space for additional fermentation capacity in the future. Will you have space to build a good sized cold room (you will want one as large as possible)? Most Brew Pub sized breweries begin with 1-2 brews per week, and that may vary through the year, for the first three or so years. At some point, one of your varieties of beers will be the dominate seller, and when you look at your production logs for the year, you find that you have brewed that particular beer way more than any others, and you seem to keep running out, likely because you are unable to time brews to replenish as the fermenters are occupied with other varieties. Soon, you will be considering the addition of another fermenter, and will likely contemplate a 2x sized fermenter to accomodate a back to back brew of that popular beer. Consider steering away from scenarios with a brewhouse size that have you brewing 3-4 or more times a week (50 weeks per year) after 2 to 4 years.
At start-up, be very cautious if your annual barrel production forecast dictates that you would size up to a larger brewhouse after a 2-3 years. Perhaps you are considering a smaller sized brewhouse for your launch (based on your start-up budget) , with the notion of sizing up after year 2 or 3. This scenario adds much more complexity than you may think. After reading all the information below, you may want to also read our article called “Brewery Size 7bbl Minimum”.
3.5, 5, 7 or 10 barrels? How do you choose the perfect brewhouse size? Some good questions to start with are:
What is your forecasted annual production in barrels for the brewery?
What is the brewery's growth plan, 3-5 years out? Will the space you are considering support growth in terms of adding fermentation capacity to meet forecasted goals/demand for 5-7 years?
Will your forecasts allow for your production to accommodate added sales from over the counter package, or localized self-distribution?
As you are considering property/facility space, Forgeworks can help you understand the space required for each size system by providing you with a brewhouse footprint. We can also draw up a floorplan to scale (based on the space you are either considering or have secured) to help you understand how to best utilize every square foot of the brewery. Even if a particular equipment item is not provided by us, if you get us the dimensions we can include it in the space plan.
Sizing your Equipment
As a general rule of thumb, you can figure a potential of up to 50 brewing weeks per year, leaving two weeks a year for deep cleaning shutdown, or break for the holiday season, etc. Based on a 50 week year: one brew per day for a five day week gives you a potential of 250 brew days per year. As mentioned, a mix and match of one to two brews a week is a common brewing schedule that most breweries see their first few years, perhaps a number of weeks in the year with zero brews. Eventually, the two brews a week becomes the norm, and a eventually that one double brew day here and there may come into the mix, provided there is the corresponding fermentation capacity. Other considerations to include in your analysis for growth are: a double sized, self-heating Hot Liquor tank (allowing time saving ease for back to back batches), double or triple sized Fermentation and Brite Tanks to support back to back brews, and adding a third brewhouse vessel (mash mixer or dedicated whirlpool) to reduce labor time for double and triple batch days. For back to back brews that are becoming more and more on the schedule throughout the year, equipment upgrades that save time are the 2x-3x self heating Hot Liquor Tank (or some incorporation of Hot Water on Demand systems), and/or the addition of a third-brewhouse vessel, a dedicated Whirlpool. As long as you have the fermentation capacity, you can get away with you original brewhouse set up, but the brew day will consist of more hours. At some point the additional hours multiplied over the year will help justify the addition of that self heating 2x sized Hot Liquor Tank, and as a second step, the dedicated Whirlpool.
Most sources recommend that your business plan include five years of growth. Including preemptive strategies on controlled growth in your business plan can be very helpful to refer back to as guidance when supply and demand issues are creeping up. For example, if you decide to embark on some local self-distribution, cans in nearby stores, or kegs at local restaurants, and you find that this is creating incremental demand such that your patrons at the brewpub are disappointed when you are out of their favorite beer, what is your plan? Did you self-distribute to early without a step by step strategy to answer the demand both in the pub and with outside sales? Should you draw back the provision for local self-distribution if your patrons sitting on premise are experiencing inconsistency in the availability of their favorite beers, perhaps the very beer they invited a group of friends to try? Always take excellent care of your on premise patrons first by having all your staple beers in good supply.
How Year 6-7 and beyond may Unfold
Potentially, should you have the floor space and fermentation capacity, by year 6-7 you could be brewing back to back brews, double or triple batching, several weeks of the year, or more. Eventually, you may be feeling the need to add another brewer or a dedicated cellar person to your roster. Following this, you could be evaluating adding production space, or a space offsite for an additional brewhouse.
If your market/community as yet more capacity for growth, and you are creeping in on brewing every day, or double or triple batching several days per week becomes the norm, and perhaps you've added that 2x/3x self heating HLT, and maybe the dedicated whirlpool, getting the most efficiency out of the available hours in a day, you are on approach to maxing out the reasonable potential of your brewhouse. With this happening, you likely you have a beer or two that your community can't get enough of, local restaurants that can't get the kegs they want, and local liquor stores that have you have on backorder. Is it time to expand? What will the next 5 years look like? Keep in mind that prior to the COVID 19 Pandemic, many breweries that had gone well beyond the Brewpub business model with distribution, were beginning to scale back, shoring up the better margins and getting out of the shelf-space war. Distribution has a whole other level of complexities, much lower margins, expansion of production space, increased roster of staff, perhaps 2nd and third shifts, and the sometimes crazy fight for shelf-space. The COVID pandemic did give breweries that were already canning and distributing an advantage, as they were not as reliant on on-premise sales. Who knows how all this will play out.
Although this is a tougher element in sales and marketing to figure, excess demand can be a very good thing. This usually stems out of a mix of three different components that are difficult to create, predict, and plan for. These three things are; the exceptional one or two beers that are all the rage, a phenomenal on premise atmosphere, and continually outstanding marketing. Excess demand can be creating out of just one of these components, but generally there is some magic combination. Maybe your could have strong marketing on mediocre beer, but perhaps your on-premise atmosphere is taking up the slack. Typically, this all begins with fantastic beer. Think Bell's Two Hearted, Dogfish IPA and the likes, think local/regional phenomenon's that you know of.
General Brewhouse Capacity for the Brewpub (conservative estimate, based on 2-brews per week, 50 weeks per year)
Note: Mash Tuns are typically designed to accomodate producing a variety of beers, and yield to the fermenter the number of barrels matching the size of the brewhouse. However, your big beers, such as DIPA's, Stouts and Imperials, you can expect to scale back the batch size and yield to the fermenter a percentage less than the size of the brewhouse. If 60% or more of what you want to have on tap are big beers, meaning your signature is going to be big beers, then consider ordering an extra wide mash tun to maximize yield to the fermenter.
3.5 BBL = 875 BBLs per year
Grain Bill Range: 158-343lbs
5 BBL = 1250 BBLs per year
Grain Bill Range: 230-498lbs
7 BBL = 1750 BBLs per year
Grain Bill Range: 315-682lbs
10 BBL = 2500 BBLs per year
Grain Bill Range: 460-996lbs
15 BBL = 3750 BBLs per year
Grain Bill Range: 670-1451lbs
Cellar Capacity (Check out our Cellar Capacity Calculator Here)
Next up is deciding the number of and size of the tanks in your cellar. How many types of beers do you plan on having on tap, and what percentage of those beers will be Lagers?
Ales take approximately two weeks for Fermentation. This equates to 25 turns per 50 week year.
Lagers take approximately 4 weeks for Fermentation. This equates to 12.5 turns per 50 week year.
Based on this, how much cellar space do you need to hit your annual production numbers? Figure the required capacity for both your Ales and Lagers. Will your current facility, or space your are evaluating accommodate all the tanks needed to get you past the 5 year point?
We have noticed a trend with Start-Up breweries to launch with a (2-3) Fermentaters and (1) bright. This is usually the first trigger for considering an additional Fermenter. Over time, after the addition of increased fermentation capacity, it is recommended that you consider adding a double sized Fermenter .
Other notable Considerations:
1) For a very small adder in price for one or more of your fermenters, you can convert the tank to a Uni-Tank, which gets you a carbonation port and a sight tube for tax determination. The fermenter as a Uni-Tank becomes a Bright and a Serving tank in one. Although you may not have the luxury of tying up the fermenter for a longer period of time, it is still nice to have the capability to utilize the fermenter as a bright tank.
2) Will you have enough cold storage for single-wall serving tanks and kegs to meet your forecasted annual production? We suggest you plan for the largest cold room possible. A good amount of serving tanks will keep at bay your need for jacketed brights.
3) Related to your initial budget, does it include expenditures on equipment that can be easily added after a year or two of operating? Are these items adding up so much as to dictate the size brewhouse that is affordable at start up? Are you including nice to have versus need to have ancillary equipment in your budget that could be foregone? Equipment items that can be added later include: extra pump(s) , VFD's on pumps, brew deck platform, barley cracker (mill), an auger/conveyance for a grain mill, fancy CIP/Keg Washing station, self-heating Hot Liquor Tanks, and converting some connections to stainless steel piping. Nice things that are not necessarily needed things include process piping for the brewhouse, more complex controls, and rake and plow on the Mash Tun. If you are forced into a decision for a certain size brewhouse because of the items described in this paragraph, then it's worth playing around with evaluating a different start up scenario that considers reducing the equipment you will start with (you can add later as revenues are flowing), and eliminating some of the nice features that are not absolutely necessary (these usually have a bleak return on investment outlook in terms of labor savings).
4) Choosing to invest in the brewhouse size that will serve your goals and demands on your beer well through year five is typically the best decision. You can start with minimal fermentation capacity and slowly add additional tanks (perhaps pre-owned) as you see demand unfolding. Perhaps you can introduce guest taps to increase variety, while you strategize on adding fermentation capacity to meet demand.